1 Day of Day 1
The longer a project takes to launch, the longer you can expect until it launches. The further out the expected launch date, the more likely it will never be completed.
For most projects, the probability that it *ever* ships decreases with every day that passes in which it doesn't.
— Max Hodak (@maxhodak_) June 14, 2021
(Max Hodak is the former CEO of Elon Musk’s Neuralink)
The longer a project takes to launch, the longer you can expect until it launches[1]. The further out the expected launch date, the more likely it will never be completed[2].
An interesting way to combat this is to count the days since inception. In other words, say “this project has been operating for __ days, and in that time we have achieved X, Y, and Z.” If you track what you get done by the day, you will be less likely to squander time. Day tracking is currently being done by several very impressive founders: Delian at Varda, Keith at OpenStore, and Eric at Ramp.
I have begun thinking about a new idea, which I am calling GOSPEL (Global Open Source Permissionless Enterprise League). I have had one foot in and one foot out — deciding whether or not this is something worth pursuing. However, as time goes by, I know I need to take this seriously. In my heart, I feel that this path is my destiny and that working on this project is the true test for myself as a person.
I will post more details about this project on my Revuenewsletter, so be sure to subscribe. I may also occasionally post interesting, but unrelated, thoughts. I will also begin tracking days starting now. With that said, in homage to Jeff Bezos, I refused to ever say it is Day 2. Metaphorically, Day 2 represents the time you stop doing the things that got you your initial success and instead become complacent and indulgent. So it will always be Day 1 (in the Amazonian sense) for GOSPEL and myself, but I will also be tracking how much time has passed since I posted this initial newsletter issue. Today marks 1 day of Day 1, tomorrow will mark 2 days of Day 1.
See you tomorrow.
[1] My best explanation for this is the Lindy Effect, as popularized by Nassim Taleb. People found the longer broadway plays had been running, the longer you could expect them to continue to run (on average). Newer plays can be expected to get canceled sooner and older plays can can be expected to continue to be popular. An unshipped project will likely continue to be unshipped the longer that it has stayed unshipped, just like a running play is likely the continue to be running the longer it has stayed running.
[2] This is a simple principle most easily explained with bonds. 30 year treasuries have a higher interest rate (due to higher risk) than 10 year treasuries. As something is promised longer in the future, the likelihood that it will be delivered goes down.